Japan faces ‘nightmare scenario’ as growing Russia-China ties could threaten US-led order

A Japanese security report warns that a contest between the US and a partnered China and Russia will ‘accelerate’ as Beijing, Moscow seek ‘non-democratic international order’

While Japan must step up to secure its interests in the Indo-Pacific, Russia’s war in Ukraine and economic issues mean it can’t yet have a formal security alliance with China, an analyst says

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Chinese President Xi Jinping (left) and Russian President Vladimir Putin shake hands during the Belt and Road Forum at the Great Hall of the People in Beijing on October 18. Photo: AP

Published: 4:02pm, 27 Nov 2023Updated: 4:26pm, 27 Nov 2023

A new Japanese security report has stated that China and Russia have a shared ambition of creating a global order heavily tilted in their favour, underlining one of Tokyo’s greatest fears – that the two powers may effectively become military allies.

The National Institute of Defence Studies (NIDS), a think tank affiliated with Japan’s defence ministry, last week released its China Security Report 2024, warning that “the contest between the United States and China-Russia over the international order will accelerate” over the coming decade or so.

It pointed out that while Beijing and Moscow had a more complicated relationship in the past, those ideological and political differences had been largely set aside to enable Chinese President Xi Jinping and Russian President Vladimir Putin to pool at least some of their powers to challenge the status quo.

Garren Mulloy, a professor of international relations at Daito Bunka University and a specialist in military issues, said the NIDS report echoed a number of recent white papers and studies in Japan in recent years, but was significant because “it has a greater degree of clarity regarding the non-benevolent characteristics of China and Russia in the modern world”.

Much of the report was focused on efforts by both Moscow and Beijing to undermine and ultimately upset the current world order, Mulloy said, with this now identifiable as an “approach that is more coordinated than in the past to change the extant rules-based order”.

According to the report, the two leaders shared a “common strategic goal” of creating a parallel international order, “based on the fundamental values of freedom and democracy”.

Chinese coastguard personnel take pictures and videos of Philippine Coast Guard (PCG) ships during the PCG’s resupply mission to the BRP Sierra Madre vessel in the disputed South China Sea. Photo: Bloomberg

It also stated Xi was showing China’s willingness to challenge the existing order by unilaterally claiming territory in the South China Sea and making similar claims elsewhere, not least against Taiwan. Similarly, Putin is pushing ahead with the war in Ukraine, while Russian naval and air units have been active close to Japanese territory, according to NIDS.